Spatio-temporal prediction of vessel traffic flow based on GL-STFormer
Volume
77
Issue number
3
Article number
77309
Received
14 November 2025
Received in revised form
21 December 2025
Accepted
26 December 2025
Available online
12 January 2026
Authors
Quandang Ma1,2, Qihong Shao1,2, Xu Du1,2, Zhao Liu1,2, Chi Zhang3, Yongjin Guo4*, Mingyang Zhang4
1HubeiKey Laboratory of Inland Shipping Technology, School of Navigation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China
2National Engineering Research Center for Water Transport Safety, Wuhan, China
3Department of Mechanics and Maritime Sciences, Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden
4State Key Laboratory of Submarine Geoscience, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China
Corresponding author email
Abstract
Accurate prediction of vessel traffic flow is crucial for ensuring the safety of inland river shipping and enhancing the efficiency of traffic operations. Inland vessel traffic flow typically exhibits significant complexity and spatio-temporal dynamic characteristics. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a Global-Local Spatiotemporal Transformer (GL-STFormer) deep learning model. The Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN) algorithm is utilized to decompose the original data into multi-feature inputs, effectively mitigating data non-stationarity. The model integrates Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) with a self-attention mechanism to extract temporal features of traffic patterns. The multi-head attention and local masking mechanisms of the Transformer model are employed to extract global and local spatial dependencies. Furthermore, the Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA) is applied to optimize the model’s hyperparameters. This study employs real-world Automatic Identification System (AIS) data from the Nantong waters of the Yangtze River for experimental validation. The results show that the proposed method significantly outperforms various baseline models in inland vessel traffic flow prediction. This study provides scientific support for precise traffic prediction and offers novel insights for the intelligent development of dynamic waterway traffic management.
Keywords
AIS data, Vessel traffic flow prediction, Spatio-temporal features, CEEMDAN